Теория принятия решений

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Категории:

• Связанное:

  • Формализм ожидаемой полезности
    

    Ожидаемая полезность - центральная идея в количественном воплощении консеквенциализма

    • Ожидаемая полезность
      
      Оценка действий на основе средних оценок их вероятных последствий.
    • Функция полезности
      
      Единственно когерентный подход к желаниям - присвоить разным исходам согласованные друг с другом очки относительной полезности.
    • Агент, оптимизирующий ожидаемую полезность
      
      Если вы не оптимизируете ожидаемую полезность, то вы ходите кругами.
    • Coherent decisions imply consistent utilities
      
      Why do we all use the 'expected utility' formalism? Because any behavior that can't be viewed from that perspective, must be qualitatively self-defeating (in various mathy ways).
    • Coherence theorems
      
      A 'coherence theorem' shows that something bad happens to an agent if its decisions can't be viewed as 'coherent' in some sense. E.g., an inconsistent preference ordering leads to going in circles.
  • Logical decision theories
    

    Root page for topics on logical decision theory, with multiple intros for different audiences.

    • An Introduction to Logical Decision Theory for Everyone Else
      
      So like what the heck is 'logical decision theory' in terms a normal person can understand?
    • Introduction to Logical Decision Theory for Analytic Philosophers
      
      Why "choose as if controlling the logical output of your decision algorithm" is the most appealing candidate for the principle of rational choice.
    • Introduction to Logical Decision Theory for Computer Scientists
      
      'Logical decision theory' from a math/programming standpoint, including how two agents with mutual knowledge of each other's code can cooperate on the Prisoner's Dilemma.
    • Introduction to Logical Decision Theory for Economists
      
      An introduction to 'logical decision theory' and its implications for the Ultimatum Game, voting in elections, bargaining problems, and more.
    • Newcomblike decision problems
      

      Decision problems in which your choice correlates with something other than its physical consequences (say, because somebody has predicted you very well) can do weird things to some decision theories.

      • Prisoner's Dilemma
        

        You and an accomplice have been arrested. Both of you must decide, in isolation, whether to testify against the other prisoner--which subtracts one year from your sentence, and adds two to theirs.

        • True Prisoner's Dilemma
          
          A scenario that would reproduce the ideal payoff matrix of the Prisoner's Dilemma about human beings who care about their public reputation and each other.
      • 'Rationality' of voting in elections
        
        "A single vote is very unlikely to swing the election, so your vote is unlikely to have an effect" versus "Many people similar to you are making a similar decision about whether to vote."
      • 99LDT x 1CDT oneshot PD tournament as arguable counterexample to LDT doing better than CDT
        
        Arguendo, if 99 LDT agents and 1 CDT agent are facing off in a one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma tournament, the CDT agent does better on a problem that CDT considers 'fair'.
      • Absent-Minded Driver dilemma
        
        A road contains two identical intersections. An absent-minded driver wants to turn right at the second intersection. "With what probability should the driver turn right?" argue decision theorists.
      • Death in Damascus
        
        Death tells you that It is coming for you tomorrow. You can stay in Damascus or flee to Aleppo. Whichever decision you actually make is the wrong one. This gives some decision theories trouble.
      • Newcomb's Problem
        
        There are two boxes in front of you, Box A and Box B. You can take both boxes, or only Box B. Box A contains $1000. Box B contains $1,000,000 if and only if Omega predicted you'd take only Box B.
      • Parfit's Hitchhiker
        
        You are dying in the desert. A truck-driver who is very good at reading faces finds you, and offers to drive you into the city if you promise to pay $1,000 on arrival. You are a selfish rationalist.
      • Toxoplasmosis dilemma
        
        A parasitic infection, carried by cats, may make humans enjoy petting cats more. A kitten, now in front of you, isn't infected. But if you *want* to pet it, you may already be infected. Do you?
      • Transparent Newcomb's Problem
        
        Omega has left behind a transparent Box A containing $1000, and a transparent Box B containing $1,000,000 or nothing. Box B is full iff Omega thinks you one-box on seeing a full Box B.
      • Ultimatum Game
        
        A Proposer decides how to split $10 between themselves and the Responder. The Responder can take what is offered, or refuse, in which case both parties get nothing.
    • Fair problem class
      
      A problem is 'fair' (according to logical decision theory) when only the results matter and not how we get there.
    • Guide to Logical Decision Theory
      
      The entry point for learning about logical decision theory.
    • Омега (инопланетный философ-тролль)
      
      Сущность, которая устраивает все эти дилеммы вагонеток. Инопланетный философ/тролль, владеющий неограниченными силами, превосходной предсказательной способностью, и имеющий очень странные мотивы.
    • Updateless decision theories
      
      Decision theories that maximize their policies (mappings from sense inputs to actions), rather than using their sense inputs to update their beliefs and then selecting actions.
  • Causal decision theories
    
  • Evidential decision theories
    
  • Modal combat
    
    Modal combat

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Оригинал: Decision theory (читать на GreaterWrong)